Manuka Resources [ASX: MKR]
Metals & Mining
NSW Silver & Gold Play with Near-Term Production Potential
We initiate coverage on Manuka Resources (ASX: MKR) with a 12-month fair value estimate of A$0.243 per share, representing a 319.1% upside from the current share price of A$0.058. MKR’s value is anchored by its Cobar Basin Production Plan in New South Wales, a prolific mining district that hosts some of Australia’s most important base and precious metals operations. The plan brings together the Wonawinta Silver Project - Australia’s only production-ready primary silver reserve - and the Mt Boppy Gold Mine, historically one of NSW’s richest producers with 500 koz of past production at an average grade of 15 g/t Au. All approvals are in place, supported by a strong operating track record that includes 3.2 Moz of silver already produced at Wonawinta, and infrastructure valued at A$60m comprising a 1 Mtpa processing plant, camp, and tailings facilities. With refurbishment underway and first production targeted for Q1 2026, Manuka is positioned to restart operations at the perfect time to capitalise on record gold and silver prices. The mining plan confirmed outstanding economics, delivering annual EBITDA of A$22m, an NPV8 of A$101m and an IRR of 109%. Moreover, these returns are based on conservative assumptions of A$50/oz silver and A$5,000/oz gold, well below current spot prices, meaning actual project cash flows will likely be significantly higher.
Globally Significant Iron Sands Project, Proven Economics
MKR also provides exposure to one of the largest undeveloped iron sands deposits globally, with its 3.2Bt VTM (vanadium-titanium-magnetite) resource, at the Taranki project in New Zealand. An updated 2025 Pre-Feasibility Study validated the world-class scale and financial metrics, with an NPV10 of US$1.26bn, an IRR of 39%, and forecast annual EBITDA of US$312m at low operating costs. The initial 20-year mine plan will produce 4.9 Mtpa of concentrate grading 56–57% Fe alongside vanadium and titanium credits, the project is positioned in the lowest quartile of global CO₂ emitters for iron ore, providing a sustainable feedstock for decarbonising steel production. Independent analysis forecasts the project will generate NZ$854m annual export revenue while creating over 1,600 total jobs. The project’s inclusion under New Zealand’s Fast Track Approvals Act (2024) along with vanadium and titanium recently being added as critical minerals provides explicit government recognition of the project’s national importance.
Sum-of-Parts DCF Valuation with Significant Upside
Our valuation of MKR highlights the company’s substantial upside potential, driven by near-term production of silver and gold, perfectly timed to capitalise on record precious metal prices, alongside transformational growth from the globally significant Tarankai VTM asset. In our Base Case, we derive an equity value of A$257m, equating to A$0.218 per share, while the Bull Case reaches A$314m, or A$0.268 per share. This implies an upside of 276%–363% from the current share price of A$0.060, with a midpoint valuation of A$0.243 per share.