Manuka Resources [ASX: MKR]
Metals & Mining
On Track for Gold & Silver Production in Q2 2026 Amid Surging Commodity Prices
We update Manuka Resources (ASX:MKR) with a revised target price of A$0.415 per share, representing a total upside of 151.2% from the current share price of A$0.165.This uplift primarily reflects improvements in the development profile of their Cobar Basin Assets following favourable pricing support after the silver and gold price surge. This highlights the company’s opportunity to leverage these precious metals, with the plan to restart production in Q2 2026 at the perfect time to capitalise on record gold and silver prices. The Cobar Basin Production plan in New South Wales brings together the Wonawinta Silver Project - Australia’s only production-ready primary silver reserve - and the Mt Boppy Gold Mine, historically one of NSW’s richest producers with 500 koz of past production at an average grade of 15 g/t Au. All approvals are in place, supported by a strong operating track record that includes 3.2 Moz of silver already produced at Wonawinta, and substantial infrastructure with a replacement value well in excess of A$100m comprising a 1Mtpa processing plant, camp, and tailings facilities. MKR also provides exposure to one of the largest undeveloped iron sands deposits globally, with its 3.2Bt Taranaki VTM (vanadium-titaniummagnetite) located in the South Taranaki bight off-shore New Zealand. An updated 2025 Pre-Feasibility Study validated the world-class scale and financial metrics, with an NPV10 of US$1.26bn, an IRR of 39%, and forecast annual EBITDA of US$312m at low operating costs.
Improved Financials and Exploration Upside
Manuka is now in a stronger position following the successful debt restructuring and the recent A$15m capital raise, which together have significantly de-risked the balance sheet and provided financial flexibility. With the deep-drilling campaign now underway at Mt Boppy, the company is targeting resource growth through deep extensions at Mt Boppy and near-surface gold at Pipeline Ridge, where an Exploration Target of 187–365kt at 1.1–1.5g/t Au has been defined, offering potential to extend mine life and enhance project economics. The recent appointment of Rod Griffith as Executive General Manager of Operations further strengthens execution capability at a critical growth phase.
Updated Valuation Indicates Further Upside
Our updated valuation of MKR highlights the company’s improved position following the continued surge in silver and gold prices. The company’s near-term production of silver and gold is perfectly timed to capitalise on these record precious metal prices, alongside transformational growth from the globally significant South Taranaki VTM project. In our Base Case, we derive an equity value of A$475m, equating to A$0.302 per share, while the Bull Case reaches A$828m, or A$0.527 per share. This implies an upside of 83%–219% from the current share price of A$0.165, with a midpoint valuation of A$0.415 per share.