Caspin Resources [ASX: CPN]
Metals & Mining
One of ASX’s Most Compelling Tin & Gold Opportunities
We initiate coverage on Caspin Resources (ASX: CPN) with a 12-month target price of A$0.34, representing a ~195% upside from the current share price. Caspin is an emerging explorer with substantial discovery upside across tin, gold, nickel, copper, PGEs and rare earths through four strategically positioned Australian projects. Its portfolio combines high-grade resources, district-scale discovery potential and near-term drilling catalysts, positioning the company for meaningful resource growth and sustained value creation.
The Bygoo Tin Project, Caspin’s flagship growth asset, provides a solid exposure to a highgrade, scalable tin system with exceptional discovery upside and clear economic advantages. Caspin has laid a powerful foundation for growth at Bygoo, anchored by the Kelpie Deposit, which hosts a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate of 3.94 Mt at 0.5% Sn for 19,300 tonnes of contained tin, a standout grade among open-pit tin projects in Australia. Backed by more than 20,000m of drilling, Kelpie demonstrates both quality and expansion potential, further supported by a substantial 12–20 Mt Exploration Target grading 0.35– 0.50% Sn, indicating the possibility of more than tripling the resource base.
Importantly, the current resource and Exploration Target cover only 5% of the 20 km Ardlethan Granite contact, one of Australia’s most fertile yet underexplored tin corridors. Rock chips up to 0.82% Sn, hundreds of historical workings and pervasive greisen alteration confirm a much larger mineralised system with potential for multiple Kelpie-style deposits. Initial metallurgical test work (53.6% Sn concentrate; 83.8% recovery) and ore sorting results (potential 3–6x feed-grade upgrade) enhance the project economics, indicating an efficient, low-cost processing pathway.
As global tin supply tightens and demand accelerates across semiconductors, EVs and clean technology manufacturing, Bygoo puts Caspin at the forefront of a high-value metals growth trend while offering a compelling discovery and growth pipeline in Australia.
Expanded pipeline accelerates Caspin’s exploration upside
Caspin’s broader pipeline adds strong, multi-commodity upside alongside Bygoo. At Weethalle, Caspin controls a highly prospective gold project in the Lachlan Fold Belt, targeting a more than 2km IP anomaly supported by strong pathfinder geochemistry, soil gold to 59 ppb Au, and high-grade surface results. Mount Squires provides strategic scale beside BHP’s A$1.7b Nebo-Babel deposits, with confirmed gold, heavy REEs and copper along a 40km corridor. Yarawindah Brook strengthens the mix with the Serradella nickelcopper-PGE system, proven metallurgical upgrades and meaningful lithium potential defined by a large, 5,000-sample geochemical dataset.
Valuation range of A$0.306–0.373 per share
Using an asset-driven peer-comparable valuation methodology, we have valued CPN at a midpoint target price of A$0.34, representing a Price/NAV of 0.34x. This indicates a significant valuation upside (195.4%) compared to the current share price. We anticipate that Caspin Resources will undergo a re-rating with the announcement of an upgraded mineral resource estimate for the Bygoo Tin project. Significant value unlocking is also possible, amidst further drilling at the Weethalle Gold project. Our valuation excludes any potential value unlocking from corporate activities undertaken by management on its REE and Ni-Cu portfolio. With all the value of CPN stock tied to its tin project, and all other assets being value-added propositions, the downside risk to the stock is highly limited. Key risks to our investment thesis include project execution delays, regulatory risks, geological risks, and commodity cycle risks.