Boab Metals Limited [ASX:BML] Update September 2025
Metals & Mining
Capital-Efficient Silver Producer in the Making: Pathway to FID in Q4 2025
We update Boab Metals (ASX: BML) with a revised Target Share Price of $0.791, this represents a total upside potential of 110.8%, reflecting significant increase from the current share price of $0.375 and an 39.4% increase from the previous Target Share Price of $0.566 from our re-initiation report from May this year. This re-rating potential is underpinned by BML’s progress on a number of critical milestones, including the delivery of the June 2024 FEED Study, the acquisition of the DeGrussa processing plant, and the signing of a binding offtake. Looking ahead, the anticipated Final Investment Decision in Q4 2025, alongside the option to consolidate 100% ownership of Sorby Hills through the acquisition of Yuguang’s interest, provides a clear pathway to full project control and development. Together, these achievements not only strengthen confidence in the upcoming financing and construction phases, but also significantly de-risk Sorby Hills and position BML as a future capital-efficient silver producer in a market supported by robust industrial demand and tightening global supply.
BML Raises A$6m to Advance Sorby Hills Toward FID
BML has successfully completed a A$6.0 million placement to sophisticated and institutional investors, with proceeds directed toward advancing the Sorby Hills Lead-Silver Project. The funds will support key pre-development activities, including refurbishment of the workers camp, project finance costs, and early site establishment works, while preserving cash reserves for exploration drilling at the Keep Target. This raise strengthens BML’s balance sheet and positions the company to progress Sorby Hills toward a FID in Q4 2025.
BML Extends Option to Secure 100% of Sorby Hills
BML reached a mutual agreement with Henan Yuguang to extend the option period to 31 December 2025 for the acquisition of Yuguang’s 25% interest in the Sorby Hills Lead-Silver Project. The extension provides BML with a clear pathway to secure 100% ownership of Sorby Hills, while allowing sufficient time to complete remaining workstreams ahead of the anticipated FID.
Valuation Anchored in Silver & Lead Upside
We update our valuation for BML to $0.713 per share in the base case and $0.868 in the upside case with a Price/NAV of 0.47x. Our updated valuation for BML is anchored in the current momentum of the silver price, which continues to benefit from a combination of monetary easing, macroeconomic uncertainty, and accelerating industrial demand tied to the global energy transition. Silver has not only maintained its position as a safe-haven asset but is increasingly recognised for its critical role in solar PV, EVs, and energy storage technologies. This dual demand profile provides a compelling long-term structural backdrop, while lead remains a stable contributor through its entrenched role in automotive and industrial batteries. We remain bullish on both silver and lead, with our modelling assumptions reflecting higher price expectations relative to our previous analysis. By aligning our valuation with these favourable market dynamics, we capture both the near-term upside potential and the durability of cash flows underpinned by diversified end-use demand. Importantly, the stronger commodity price outlook materially improves BML’s financing flexibility. This translates into lower dilution for existing shareholders, enhancing the project’s attractiveness while preserving upside leverage to rising silver and lead markets.
Disclaimer: Directors of Shares in Value hold shares in Boab Metals (ASX: BML).