Leeuwin Metals [ASX: LM1] Update September 2026
Metals & Mining
Resource Growth and Strategic Interest Accelerate Marda’s Development Pathway
We are revising our target price for Leeuwin Metals (ASX: LM1) upwards to $0.71, implying a compelling ~172% total upside from the current $0.26 share price and marking a 36% uplift from our Update Report from May 2026. Our valuation reflects the material progress achieved across the Marda Gold Project, particularly the recent resource upgrade, a supportive gold price environment, and the growing strategic interest from Forrestania Resources (ASX: FRS). The latest growth at the exploration target and resource update represents a key de-risking milestone, materially strengthening both the scale and the confidence profile of Leeuwin's resource base and providing a stronger platform for the studies that lie ahead.
Leeuwin has also advanced several important workstreams in parallel, including a nonbinding collaboration with Bain Global Resources and MEGA Resources on funding and processing pathways, and encouraging historical drill results across prospects that sit outside the current resource. Separately, FRS's continued build-up of its substantial shareholding, alongside its own transformational acquisition of the nearby Edna May processing hub, points to a regional consolidation dynamic that could work in LM1's favour. With Leeuwin's ongoing resource review already delivering a maiden Exploration Target of 142,000oz to 186,000oz outside the existing Mineral Resource, the pathway to further conversion is no longer purely conceptual, reinforcing the case for continued conversion of exploration upside into resources and providing additional support for a re-rating.
Goldfields Hub: Execution Drives Near-Term Upside
Goldfields has moved from planning into physical construction, making it Brightstar’s key near-term value driver. Major earthworks are complete, structural steel work has started and foundations for the crusher, SAG mill and processing tanks are advancing. Power and LNG agreements are in place, key equipment has been secured and water infrastructure is progressing. Importantly, the project remains on schedule and within budget, with first gold targeted for June 2027. Mining preparations are also advancing, with Second Fortune stockpiles building and Lord Byron mobilisation targeted for DecQ CY26. Brightstar had A$283m of liquidity at 30 June 2026, providing the funding required to complete development. Risk has therefore shifted from financing and approvals toward construction, commissioning and ramp-up. Successful delivery should establish Brightstar as an owner-operator, generate meaningful cash flow and help fund Sandstone, while mine-life extensions and potential plant expansion provide further upside.
Marda Expands to 378.6koz as Indicated Ounces Rise 41%
The updated MRE for Marda now stands at 11.4Mt at 1.03g/t Au for 378,600oz, an 11% increase in total oz versus the December 2025 maiden estimate. More importantly, Indicated oz grew 41% to 104,000oz, lifting the Indicated share of the resource from 21.6% to 27.5%, a meaningful shift toward the higher-confidence material that matters most for financing and mine planning. Evanston drove most of this growth, up 22% to 165,500oz. The update also delivered a maiden 6,600oz resource at Dugite. With 55 holes still pending assay, we see further upgrades as likely.
Marda’s Opportunity Set Expands Beyond the Current Resource Base
The Red Boomerang and Deception Hill prospects, alongside the non-binding MOU with Bain Global Resources and MEGA Resources, provide compelling evidence that Marda is evolving beyond a single-deposit story into a broader, well-supported growth platform. Both prospects sit entirely outside the current 378,600oz Mineral Resource, with historical intercepts including 66m at 1.12g/t Au and 12m at 4.33g/t Au pointing to untested endowment across tenure Leeuwin already controls.
Together with MEGA and Bain's evaluation of funding, mining and processing pathways, these developments strengthen the view that the current MRE represents only the first stage of a much larger opportunity at Marda, materially expanding Leeuwin's long-term upside and reinforcing the project's strategic position within the Southern Cross district.
SOTP Valuation Reflects Marda’s Increasing Scale and Strategic Value
We derive a base-case target price of $0.64, implying ~147% upside to the current share price, while our upside case target price of $0.77 represents a more substantial ~196% upside potential, resulting in a midpoint Price/NAV of 0.37x. We use a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation that keeps the Marda Gold Project as the core value driver, with upside supported by ongoing exploration news flow and a resource base that has already shown it can grow quickly. The current gold price environment adds further weight to the thesis, improving the economics of near-infrastructure resources like Marda and increasing the appeal of well-located, drill-ready gold assets more broadly across Western Australia.
Disclosure: Shares in Value Pty Ltd. holds shares in Leeuwin Metals (ASX: LM1).