Leeuwin Metals Limited [ASX:LM1]
Metals & Mining
Unlocking High-Grade Gold in Western Australia's Prolific Goldfields Region
We initiate coverage on Leeuwin Metals Ltd (ASX: LM1) with a fair valuation of A$0.38, representing a 286% potential upside from the latest share price of A$0.099. Leeuwin's primary asset is the Marda Gold Project in Western Australia, which previously had 333,000 ounces of JORC-compliant gold resources before Ramelius produced 143,000 ounces at an average grade of 1.9 g/t from the deposit. The Marda Gold Project spans over 500km2 in a well-established mining district in WA's renowned Goldfields, roughly 120 km north of Southern Cross and 400 km northeast of Perth. Using extensive historical drilling data and its ongoing drilling programs, LM1 is making rapid progress toward defining a JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the project in the short-term.
A historic and highly prospective gold field in a Tier 1 location
The Marda Gold Project, located in Western Australia's premier mining jurisdiction, benefits from excellent infrastructure, including sealed road access and proximity to the Edna May Processing Facility and regional service centres. Situated within the historically rich Youanmi Terrane, the project spans a 70 km greenstone corridor with significant gold mineralisation and a strong production history. Backed by over 350,000 metres of historical drilling, Marda is posed for substantial exploration upside, with Leeuwin Metals targeting high-grade extensions across multiple high-grade prospects.
A bullish outlook on gold supports Marda's economics
Gold's surge in 2025—driven by central bank buying, geopolitical tensions, and inflation-has solidified its status as a strategic asset in a fragmented global economy, with prices exceeding US$3,500/oz and growing demand from both institutional and retail investors. As countries diversify away from the U.S. dollar and digital platforms broaden access, gold is evolving from a crisis hedge to a core financial anchor, fueling M&A activity and reinforcing its long-term relevance amid deepening macroeconomic instability.
Valuation range of A$0.35-0.41 per share
Using an asset-based comparable valuation methodology, we value Leeuwin at A$0.35 per share in a base-case scenario and A$O.41 per share in a bull-case scenario. Near and mid-term catalysts include a new Mineral Resource Estimate, ongoing drilling success, and potential monetisation through toll treatment or ore sales, supported by strategic alignment with major shareholder Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS, $2.9b market capitalisation as of 24 July 2025). Beyond Marda, Leeuwin's diversified asset base—including lithium, nickel, and iron ore projects—adds optionality and potential for further valuation uplift once the current commodity downcycle ends. Key risks to our investment thesis include commodity price risk, funding risks, and geological risks. For more explanation, see page 33 for catalysts and page 34 for key risks.