Manuka Resources (ASX: MKR)
Metals & Mining
NSW Silver & Gold Play with Near-Term Production Potential
We update STK with a revised Target Share Price $0.638, this represents a total upside potential of 311.3%, reflecting significant increase from the current share price of $0.155 and an 20.5% increase from our Target Share Price since our last report from May 2025. Our re-rating reflects decisive portfolio actions and execution. The Yandal divestment sharpened a Rogozna-first strategy and strengthened the balance sheet. 2025 drilling at Shanac, Gradina and Kotlovi, supported by positive metallurgy, has expanded scale and confidence. Record gold prices improve project economics. Looking ahead, Strickland is positioned to convert momentum into shareholder value via continued high-impact drilling, step-out/resource definition at Rogozna, and a disciplined, capital-efficient program focused on rapid resource growth and de-risking.
Globally Significant Iron Sands Project, Proven Economics
MKR also provides exposure to one of the largest undeveloped iron sands deposits globally, with its 3.2Bt VTM (vanadium-titanium-magnetite) resource, at the Taranki project in New Zealand. An updated 2025 Pre-Feasibility Study validated the world-class scale and financial metrics, with an NPV10 of US$1.26bn, an IRR of 39%, and forecast annual EBITDA of US$312m at low operating costs. The initial 20-year mine plan will produce 4.9 Mtpa of concentrate grading 56–57% Fe alongside vanadium and titanium credits, the project is positioned in the lowest quartile of global CO₂ emitters for iron ore, providing a sustainable feedstock for decarbonising steel production. Independent analysis forecasts the project will generate NZ$854m annual export revenue while creating over 1,600 total jobs. The project’s inclusion under New Zealand’s Fast Track Approvals Act (2024) along with vanadium and titanium recently being added as critical minerals provides explicit government recognition of the project’s national importance.
Sum-of-Parts DCF Valuation with Significant Upside
Our valuation of MKR highlights the company’s substantial upside potential, driven by near-term production of silver and gold, perfectly timed to capitalise on record precious metal prices, alongside transformational growth from the globally significant Tarankai VTM asset. In our Base Case, we derive an equity value of A$257m, equating to A$0.218 per share, while the Bull Case reaches A$314m, or A$0.268 per share. This implies an upside of 276%–363% from the current share price of A$0.060, with a midpoint valuation of A$0.243 per share.