Resolution Minerals [ASX:RML]
Metals & Mining
Tier-1 Antimony-Gold-Tungsten Opportunity in the U.S. Critical Minerals Corridor
We initiate coverage on Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML) with a 12-month target price of A$0.15 per share, representing a 154% upside to the current share price of A$0.058. The company’s valuation is anchored by its flagship Horse Heaven Project in Idaho, a high-grade, polymetallic critical minerals system with antimony, gold, silver and tungsten. RML offers exposure to one of the most strategically important US priorities: sourcing domestic critical minerals supply. RML’s Horse Heaven is situated directly adjacent to Perpetua Resources’ (US$2bn) Stibnite Project, set to become America’s largest antimony producer and open-pit gold mine when production begins in 2028. Testing has confirmed Horse Heaven shares the same mineralogy as its billion-dollar neighbour, suggesting both projects form part of the same broader mineralised corridor. It already has a history of producing antimony and tungsten, along with a historic resource estimate of 286koz, putting it ahead of most explorers.
Imminent Catalysts: Active Drilling and NASDAQ Listing
Resolution Minerals is entering a pivotal stage with multiple near-term catalysts that could lead to re-ratings. RML maiden drill programme is now underway at the flagship, Horse Heaven Project—targeting high-grade antimony and gold mineralisation, where we estimate a potential gold endowment of ~3.25Moz Au, in one of America’s most strategic mining districts. With historical assays including 5.9g/t Au and 19.15% Sb, with over 60% samples exceeding 1g/t Au at surface, drilling will provide the first modern test of scale and continuity across this under explored system. Alongside the drill campaign, RML will soon have a dual listing on the NASDAQ, offering direct access to the world’s largest pool of capital. The listing is being led by Roth Capital, a respected U.S. investment bank with a strong track record of supporting small- and mid-cap growth companies, providing RML with direct access to a broad network of institutional investors, enhanced visibility in the U.S. capital markets, and valuable experience in executing cross-border listings. Moreover, RML has strong macro tailwinds to aid success with gold, antimony, silver and tungsten, all trading near record highs and U.S. policy is increasingly focused on reshoring its critical minerals supply chains.
Attractive Valuation with Significant Upside
Our valuation of RML underscores the company’s significant re-rating potential, driven by its exceptional antimony-gold-tungsten opportunity at Horse Heaven. In our Base Case, we derive an equity value of A$234.9 million, equating to A$0.118 per share, while the Bull Case reaches A$351.9 million, or A$0.177 per share. This implies a 12-month upside of 103.3-204.5%, with a midpoint target price of A$0.15 per share. The valuation is grounded in a conservative EV/resource methodology, incorporating appropriate discounts for early stage risk and resource estimate, while leaving additional scope for upside in Resolution Minerals’ broader project portfolio.