Stellar Resources [ASX: SRZ] Update July 2026
Metals & Mining
Significant Resource Growth and Strategic Funding Positions Heemskirk for Development Pathway
We are revising our target price for Stellar Resources (ASX: SRZ) upwards to $1.07, implying a compelling 245% total upside from the current $0.31 share price and marking an uplift from our Update report from September 2025. Our valuation reflects the material progress achieved across the Heemskirk Tin Project, particularly the updated MRE, stronger tin price environment, and improved funding position following the Metals X-backed capital raising. The latest resource update represents a key de-risking milestone by materially strengthening the project’s scale and providing a larger, higher-confidence platform for the upcoming PFS.
Stellar has also advanced several important workstreams, including Severn and Queen Hill metallurgical optimisation, Comstock and Avebury infrastructure optionality, and the strategic investment from Metals X. The upcoming PFS, expected in 2H 2026, represents the most important near-term catalyst for SRZ. The study is expected to update Heemskirk’s development case following the expanded resource base, incorporating updated mine planning, production rates, capex, operating costs, recoveries and mine life assumptions. A strong PFS outcome could materially improve confidence in Heemskirk’s development pathway, highlight the value of the larger resource inventory, and provide a clearer basis for project financing and a potential market re-rating.
Heemskirk Resource Upgrade Provides Stronger PFS Platform
The latest MRE update marks a major scale and confidence uplift for Heemskirk, with Severn increasing 64% to 8.54Mt @ 0.82% Sn for 70.0kt contained tin and its Indicated Resource increasing 125% to 50.7kt contained tin. This lifts the total Heemskirk resource to 13.36Mt @ 0.86% Sn for 115.3kt contained tin, or 129.1kt contained tin including St Dizier. In our view, the upgrade provides a stronger platform for the upcoming PFS.
451koz MRE Anchors a High-Quality Gold Development Opportunity
Tuckanarra hosts an updated MRE of 6.3Mt at 2.2g/t Au for 451koz, comprising 377koz of open-pit resources and 74koz of higher-grade underground resources. The Stage 1 development case is centred on a Cable open-pit toll-milling operation, with Cable hosting 2.75 Mt at 1.8g/t Au for 158koz, including 87koz Indicated. Stage 1 captures only part of Cable and 19% of the total MRE, leaving residual value in the remaining Cable inventory, Highway’s higher-grade underground resources and other deposits that could support future staged development.
Supporting Workstreams Continue to De-Risk Heemskirk
Alongside the MRE upgrade, Stellar has continued to de-risk Heemskirk through several supporting workstreams. Metallurgical test-work at Severn and Queen Hill demonstrated improved recovery pathways and clean concentrate potential, strengthening confidence in future processing economics. The Comstock agreement and ongoing Avebury assessment also provide valuable infrastructure optionality, particularly around tailings storage and potential regional processing solutions. In parallel, portfolio consolidation through Granite Tor and Ringville expands SRZ’s Tasmanian tin and critical minerals footprint, adding longer-term exploration upside.
Structural Tin Deficit Supports SRZ’s Re-Rating Potential
Tin remains one of the more attractive base metal themes, supported by a combination of strong pricing, limited listed exposure and tightening supply. Despite being a much smaller market than copper, tin currently trades at a significant premium, with recent LME pricing at ~US$50,000/t versus copper at ~US$13,500/t, highlighting its scarcity value and strategic importance. The key issue remains supply - very few meaningful tin projects have been developed over the past three decades, while historical inventories have been depleted and production has become increasingly reliant on higher-risk regions such as Myanmar, Indonesia and the DRC. Against this backdrop, high-grade projects in stable jurisdictions are becoming increasingly valuable, positioning SRZ’s Heemskirk Tin Project as a compelling exposure to a structurally tight and strategically important tin market.
Robust Tin Prices Support Potential Re-Rating
We update our valuation for SRZ to $1.01 per share in the base case, representing ~226% upside and $1.13 per share in the bull case, with ~263% upside, deriving a Price/NAV of 0.29x. Tin’s strong price environment and Metals X’s strategic investment have materially strengthened SRZ’s investment case.