Terra Metals Limited [ASX:TM1]
Metals & Mining
Emerging Tier-1 Copper Resource in WA
We initiate coverage on Terra Metals (ASX: TM1) with a 12-month target price of A$0.082, representing a 215% upside from the current share price of A$0.026. This valuation reflects the scale, geological potential, and strategic relevance of the company’s flagship Dante Project in Western Australia—a large polymetallic system containing copper, titanium, gold, PGEs and vanadium across an 80km mineralised corridor. The project’s shallow, flat-lying, outcropping mineralisation, which resembles a coal seam, is highly amenable to low-strip, open-pit mining, supported by encouraging early-stage drill results and exceptional metallurgy. With access to established infrastructure and neighbouring tenement holders — including BHP, Rio Tinto, and KoBold Metals (backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos) — TM1’s Dante Project is well-positioned to benefit from both low-cost development and rising demand for critical minerals. The recent acquisition of neighbouring tenements further strengthens TM1’s footprint, positioning the company as a district-scale player and a compelling strategic target.
Scale, Grade, and Exceptional Metallurgy
A maiden JORC Resource Estimate is currently underway at the Dante Project, with our analysis indicating a potential range from 60–200Mt at an average grade of ~1.5% CuEq—representing just 10–15% of the broader 80km outcropping strike. Based on this footprint, we estimate the project-wide resource potential at 425–981Mt @ 1.5% CuEq, containing 893–3,041kt of copper, 1.37–6.31Moz of gold, 2.1–4.9Mt of V₂O₅, 60–204Mt of TiO₂, and 3.69–15.7Moz of PGMs, with an in-situ value of US$60.5–139.8 billion. Metallurgical test work confirms Dante’s exceptional simplicity and potential, delivering three high-grade concentrates with high recoveries:
- Copper - 28% Cu, 17g/t Au, 22.4g/t PGM (95.6% Cu Recovery)
- Vanadium - 1.81% V₂O₅ concentrate (90.5% V₂O₅ recovery)
- Titanium - 40% TiO₂ concentrate (65% TiO₂ recovery)
Attractive valuation with significant upside
Our valuation of TM1 highlights the company’s substantial upside potential, underpinned by its strategic exposure to critical minerals, near-surface geology, and upcoming exploration catalysts. In our Base Case, we derive an equity value of A$31.4 million, equating to A$0.072 per share, while the Bull Case reaches A$40.1 million, or A$0.092 per share. This implies a 12-month upside of 176%– 253% from the current share price of A$0.026, with a midpoint target price of A$0.082 per share. The valuation applies a conservative resource range based on the 60–110Mt initial Dante exploration target and does not fully incorporate the broader project-wide potential, which we estimate at 425–981Mt.