Trigg Minerals [ASX:TMG]
Metals & Mining
Unlocking Australia’s Highest-Grade Underdeveloped Antimony Resource
We initiate coverage on Trigg Minerals (ASX: TMG) with a 12-month target price of A$0.163, representing a substantial potential upside of 262.8% from the current share price of A$0.045. This target price reflects our detailed analysis of Trigg's strategic positioning and the favourable market environment. TMG is a critical minerals and gold exploration company advancing high grade antimony and gold projects in Australia. Its flagship Wild Cattle Creek deposit, part of the Achilles Antimony Project, boasts a JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate of 15.6 kt of contained antimony at an average grade of 2.56% Sb, ranking as one of Australia’s highest-grade undeveloped antimony resources. This positions Trigg as a key player in the critical minerals sector, with antimony's rising importance in renewable energy, battery technologies, and defence applications creating significant growth opportunities. Recent antimony prices have exceeded US$33,000/t (A$50,081/t), driven by supply chain pressures following China’s export restrictions. Trigg's competitive All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of A$24,837/t (Base Case) and A$21,081/t (Bull Case) underpin Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation under conservative pricing scenarios of A$45,837/t and A$50,081/t, respectively, highlighting the project’s strong economic fundamentals.
High-Grade Antimony and Gold Potential with Promising Exploration Upside
The Achilles Antimony Project hosts the Wild Cattle Creek deposit, which features strong resource characteristics, 90% recovery rates, and significant upside in exploration. This includes untested mineralised trends that show promising signs for further resource expansion. Taylors Arm adds further antimony potential, with historical grades of up to 63% Sb and over 88 historical workings across six mining camps. At the same time, the Drummond Gold Project complements the portfolio with a focus on low-sulphidation epithermal gold systems. Rock chip results at Drummond include 55.4 g/t Au with a follow-up of 9.32 g/t.
Australia’s Answer to China’s Antimony Dominance & Supply Risks
China’s recent export restrictions on antimony have created significant global supply pressures, driving prices to multi-year highs showing the critical importance of antimony in defence and renewable energy applications. Used in ammunition, flame retardants, and next-generation battery technologies, antimony’s role in decarbonisation and national security is driving increased demand, particularly as nations seek to diversify away from China, which controls over 60% of global supply. Trigg Minerals Wild Cattle Creek deposit positions the company as a key domestic supplier, aligning with Australia’s critical minerals strategy and addressing growing geopolitical concerns.
Attractive valuation with significant near-term catalyst
Our valuation for Trigg Minerals (ASX: TMG) highlights its strong growth potential, supported by strong free cash flow (FCF) projections and favourable market dynamics. In the Base Case scenario, we project total FCF of A$75.8M, leading to a firm value of A$60.5M and an implied share price of A$0.144. In the Bull Case, higher antimony prices and optimised cost assumptions drive FCF to A$98.6M, resulting in a firm value of A$76.8M and an implied share price of A$0.182. Trigg’s strategic positioning in the critical minerals market, coupled with its high-grade antimony resources and competitive cost structure, positions the company for a potential re-rating as it advances its projects and achieves significant milestones.
We employed a two-component valuation methodology: discounted FCFs from mining operations and a peer-based valuation of residual resources. This conservative approach underscores Trigg’s upside potential while accounting for risks, including commodity price volatility, funding challenges, and exploration outcomes. As Trigg progresses its exploration activities and delivers resource upgrades, the company is well-positioned to capitalise on favourable commodity market conditions.