Trigg Minerals [ASX:TMG] Update Aug 2025
Metals & Mining
Re-Rating Driven by Strategic U.S. Acquisitions and Milestones
We re-initiate our coverage on Trigg Minerals (ASX: TMG), revising our Target Share Price upwards to $0.257, representing a substantial total upside potential of 173.3% from the current share price of $0.094 and a significant 33.8% increase from our target share price from our last report in May 2025. This re-rating reflects the company's achievement of several key milestones, including the strategic U.S. acquisitions of the Antimony Canyon Project (ACP) and the Tennessee Mountain Tungsten Project (TMTP). It also accounts for positive corporate developments such as appointing experienced leadership and a deliberate pivot to capitalise on the U.S. critical minerals needs. These advancements materially enhance Trigg Minerals' growth trajectory and strengthen its investment case within the rapidly evolving critical minerals landscape.
Strategic U.S. Project Strengthened by High-Impact Exploration Target
The Utah Asset ACP represents a high-potential asset in Trigg Minerals' U.S. portfolio. In July 2025, they completed an Exploration Target of up to 234,000 tonnes of contained antimony, significantly enhancing geological confidence and underscoring the project's scale potential. In August 2025, exceptional high -grade exploration results validated these resource estimates. This Target and exploration results provides a de-risked pathway towards understanding the size of the project’s resource, directly increasing the project's valuation credibility.
U.S. Tungsten Acquisition Strengthens Case for Government Support
In August 2025, Trigg Minerals' acquisition of the TMTP in Nevada marks a pivotal expansion into a larger US footprint with another high-priority critical mineral. The US government has designated Tungsten a critical mineral and provides regulatory support and fiscal aid to specific strategic companies. This acquisition positions Trigg as a stronger candidate for Department of Defence (DoD) funding, following a recent $6.2 million award to another Nevada tungsten project. This strategic move enhances Trigg's eligibility for non-dilutive capital and increases project valuation potential.
Dual Commodity Exposure Enhances Strategic Value and Market Resilience
Trigg Minerals’ exposure to antimony and tungsten significantly strengthens its strategic positioning in the critical minerals landscape. These dual commodities are essential to defence, energy, and advanced manufacturing, and both are listed on the U.S. Critical Minerals List. This diversification not only boosts Trigg’s appeal to downstream offtake partners and government stakeholders, but also reduces single-commodity risk, enhances funding optionality, and supports a more robust, resilient valuation outlook.
Stock Rerating Driven by Project Acquisition Discoveries and Team
Following recent milestones, we value TMG at $0.240 in our base case (155.0% upside) and $0.274 in our bull case (191.6% upside), relative to the current share price of $0.094. Using the midpoint of these scenarios, our target price of $0.257 implies a potential upside of 173.3%. This re-rating is driven by a substantial uplift in Trigg Minerals’ resource potential following the strategic acquisitions of the Antimony Canyon and Tennessee Mountain Tungsten Projects that position the company within the U.S. critical minerals supply chain. Driven by a global antimony shortage, growing strategic demand and rising prices, the investment case is strengthened by a focused U.S. strategy and stronger leadership, reducing execution risk and accelerating value creation.