Critica [ASX:CRI]
Metals & Mining
De-Risking the Development Pathway at Scale
We have updated our valuation of Critica (ASX: CRI) following our Initiation report in June 2025, incorporating the substantial technical progress achieved since our initial assessment. Key developments across beneficiation, metallurgy and processing validation materially reduce execution risk and support an updated target price of A$0.104, representing a 334.3% upside to the current share price. CRI’s flagship project in Western Australia, Jupiter and The Brothers, is one of the world’s largest clay-hosted rare earths systems, with a JORC 2012 Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 1.8Bt at 1,700 ppm TREO. The project is characterised by magnet REE dominance, containing 682kt MREO, a key driver of value. This places Jupiter not only among the largest global deposits but also among the highest quality. The deposit benefits from very low impurity levels, with additional value from byproducts recovered via the same circuit, including gallium. Since our last report, Critica has delivered several major technical milestones, including the successful production of its first mixed rare earth product (84% TREO at 78% recovery), validation of the end-to-end flowsheet, and commencement of a Scoping Study. This marks a clear transition into economic assessment. The project also benefits from excellent infrastructure, located 2.5 hours from the port of Geraldton, with sealed road access and proximity to existing processing infrastructure. CRI offers a compelling opportunity to invest in rebuilding a secure, Western-aligned rare earths supply chain.
Beneficiation Strategy a Key Advantage against Peers
The strong alignment between Jupiter’s geology and metallurgy enables Critica to pursue a beneficiation-first strategy, one of the project’s defining advantages. This is an important distinction that separates Jupiter from most clay-hosted rare earth systems. By physically upgrading the material prior to leaching, Critica can feed a significantly cleaner (>800% uplift in feed grade), lower-tonnage (removing ~95% of mined mass) stream into the chemical circuit, improving capital efficiency and overall project economics. The company has demonstrated that its processing flowsheet is both repeatable and scalable, with the project now advancing into optimisation through a 3,000 kg closed-circuit pilot plant. This step marks a clear transition from exploration into development. The pace of CRI’s technical progress has been driven by a strong team, with the appointment of Jacob Deysel as CEO in July 2025 and 3 PhD-qualified specialists reporting to him.
Valuation Range: A$0.094 – A$0.115
Our valuation of Critica confirms the company’s substantial re-rating potential, driven by the quality of their Jupiter and The Brothers Project. In our Base Case, we derive a total equity value of A$326.05m, equating to A$0.094 per share, while the Upside Case increases to A$399.81m, or A$0.115 per share. This represents an implied upside of 290.2%–378.4% relative to the current share, with a midpoint fair valuation of A$0.104 per share. CRI trades at a material discount to its intrinsic value, providing an attractive entry point for investors.