Pivotal Metals Limited [ASX:PVT] Update June 2025
Metals & Mining
Investment Thesis Advances on Strong Metallurgy, Updated MRE & Exploration
We update Pivotal Metals (ASX:PVT) with a revised target price of A$0.033 per share, representing a total upside of 443% from the current share price of A$0.006 and a higher bull-case valuation of A$0.040, equating to 562% upside. This uplift reflects the substantial developments across its portfolio, led by the flagship Horden Lake copper-nickel-PGM project in Quebec. A 43% increase in the pit-constrained CuEq resource to 341kt now underpins a 37Mt @ 1.1% CuEq JORC 2025 MRE demonstrating a clear grade and scale potential from a low risk open-pit development scenario. The rising strategic value of Pivotal’s asset base is underscored by accelerating M&A activity in the pre-development copper sector, demonstrated by the acquisition of New World Resources (A$185m) and bids for Xanadu Mines (A$160m). Both transactions were struck at substantial premiums reflecting the shortage of advanced copper development opportunities. These transactions underscore the widening disconnect between Pivotal’s intrinsic value and its current market capitalisation, and reaffirm our view that the company is deeply undervalued.
Major Technical Milestones and Gold Upside at Lorraine
PVT has announced a series of high-impact technical and exploration updates that materially strengthen its investment case. Alongside Horden Lake’s updated MRE resource, exceptional metallurgical results have confirmed the production of clean, high-grade concentrates using a conventional flotation circuit. Copper recoveries reached up to 94%, with concentrate grades ranging from 22–28% Cu, and significant payable credits in gold, silver, palladium, and cobalt—collectively de-risking the processing pathway and enhancing the project’s downstream marketability. In parallel, Pivotal is ramping up exploration at its 100%-owned BAGB project, notably recently revealing a potentially transformational gold system at the Lorraine prospect where historical underground channel sampling returned bonanza-grade intercepts including 28m @ 45.2g/t Au and 3.2% Cu with strong mineralised continuity along a 600m strike, and located just 12km from the historic 750koz Belleterre Mine.
Updated Valuation Provides Higher Bull Case
We value PVT at A$0.025 in our base case, representing an upside of 324%, and A$0.040 in the bull case, implying a 562% uplift from the current share price of A$0.006. Despite a recent compression in peer EV/resource multiples, our updated valuation presents a higher bull case for PVT, incorporating higher geological confidence and strong discovery momentum across Pivotal’s portfolio. With drilling underway, assays pending, and a Horden Lake resource upgrade expected within three months, PVT is primed for a potential re-rating. The company’s strategic positioning in mining-friendly Quebec, along with multiple near-term catalysts and growing resource scale, underscores its deep discount to NAV and reinforces the strong upside potential embedded in the current valuation.